Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Intrade Betting is Suspicious

FiveThirtyEight has an interesting look at some Intrade irregularities concerning the POTUS prediction market.
"It's pretty obvious that this is not some sort of random walk. Rather, every so often, some individual trader or some small group of traders are shorting all the Obama contacts in bulk and resetting the entire market. The markets then organically climb back upward until the rogue trader strikes again six or eight hours later. The volumes on these contracts have been very high for the past week as a result."
It's hard to summarize the whole post, so take 5 minutes and check it out.

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